The stabilization of housing prices can be long and uncertain

The stabilization of housing prices can be long and uncertain

It should be added immediately that developers and people who plan to sell flats have such hopes. Those who are trying to buy are still counting on falling prices.

Price index in the largest cities

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Meanwhile, they have not fallen below the levels of December 2012 since the beginning of the year - this is the result of the housing price index in the largest cities, calculated by Open Finance and Home Broker.

-What's more, today the average transaction price of the metro is almost 7 percent higher than in December, although we still note a 2% discount on an annual basis. It is hard not to be impressed that we are getting closer to the possibility of announcing the end of the downward trend in the housing market - says Bartosz Turek, an analyst at Home Broker.

Vain expectations of buyers?

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All those who count on halting the fall in prices, however, should be restrained from excessive optimism by the fact that part of this year's rebound is the result of a change in the quality of the premises sold: now, when there are no more opportunities for the cheapest purchases with subsidized credit, the choice falls on more expensive premises, which raises the average.

But even if a change in trend were to occur, this would not mean that housing prices would now start rising. "There is probably a stabilization phase ahead of us, the length of which cannot be judged today," adds Turek.

The fact that it will be long and uncertain is invariably argued by the fact that the domestic economy is growing at a rapid rate, and developers have, at least statistically, a lot of flats for sale in their offers.

It is true that the majority is still at the construction stage, but their number (in Q1 estimated by the consulting company REAS at 50.5 thousand in six largest markets) would be enough to carry out sales at the current level for the next 18-24 months.

When we are more willing to borrow

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On the other hand, interest rates were not as low as today. As a result, it is possible today to obtain a mortgage with an interest rate of 4-4.5 percent. per year. A mechanism is slowly starting to work, according to which citizens are more likely to get into debt when borrowed capital is simply cheaper.

This may especially apply to people who have previously rented apartments. Today, the amount paid to their landlords for rent is enough to pay off the monthly installment, at least in many cases. This can encourage you to shop. And what can tomorrow bring? Price stabilization or a slight increase - experts believe.

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